因果推理，经济学以及更普遍的一般机器学习中的重要问题可以表示为条件力矩限制，但是估计变得具有挑战性，因为它需要解决无条件的力矩限制的连续性。以前的工作通过将广义的矩（GMM）方法扩展到连续矩限制来解决此问题。相比之下，广义经验可能性（GEL）提供了一个更通用的框架，并且与基于GMM的估计器相比，已显示出具有优惠的小样本特性。为了从机器学习的最新发展中受益，我们提供了可以利用任意模型的凝胶的功能重新重新制定。通过对所得无限尺寸优化问题的双重配方的激励，我们设计了一种实用方法并探索其渐近性能。最后，我们提供基于内核和基于神经网络的估计器实现，这些实现在两个条件矩限制问题上实现了最先进的经验绩效。

Multiple lines of evidence strongly suggest that infection hotspots, where a single individual infects many others, play a key role in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. However, most of the existing epidemiological models fail to capture this aspect by neither representing the sites visited by individuals explicitly nor characterizing disease transmission as a function of individual mobility patterns. In this work, we introduce a temporal point process modeling framework that specifically represents visits to the sites where individuals get in contact and infect each other. Under our model, the number of infections caused by an infectious individual naturally emerges to be overdispersed. Using an efficient sampling algorithm, we demonstrate how to estimate the transmission rate of infectious individuals at the sites they visit and in their households using Bayesian optimization and longitudinal case data. Simulations using fine-grained and publicly available demographic data and site locations from Bern, Switzerland showcase the flexibility of our framework. To facilitate research and analyses of other cities and regions, we release an open-source implementation of our framework.

As language models (LMs) scale, they develop many novel behaviors, good and bad, exacerbating the need to evaluate how they behave. Prior work creates evaluations with crowdwork (which is time-consuming and expensive) or existing data sources (which are not always available). Here, we automatically generate evaluations with LMs. We explore approaches with varying amounts of human effort, from instructing LMs to write yes/no questions to making complex Winogender schemas with multiple stages of LM-based generation and filtering. Crowdworkers rate the examples as highly relevant and agree with 90-100% of labels, sometimes more so than corresponding human-written datasets. We generate 154 datasets and discover new cases of inverse scaling where LMs get worse with size. Larger LMs repeat back a dialog user's preferred answer ("sycophancy") and express greater desire to pursue concerning goals like resource acquisition and goal preservation. We also find some of the first examples of inverse scaling in RL from Human Feedback (RLHF), where more RLHF makes LMs worse. For example, RLHF makes LMs express stronger political views (on gun rights and immigration) and a greater desire to avoid shut down. Overall, LM-written evaluations are high-quality and let us quickly discover many novel LM behaviors.

A reliable pose estimator robust to environmental disturbances is desirable for mobile robots. To this end, inertial measurement units (IMUs) play an important role because they can perceive the full motion state of the vehicle independently. However, it suffers from accumulative error due to inherent noise and bias instability, especially for low-cost sensors. In our previous studies on Wheel-INS \cite{niu2021, wu2021}, we proposed to limit the error drift of the pure inertial navigation system (INS) by mounting an IMU to the wheel of the robot to take advantage of rotation modulation. However, it still drifted over a long period of time due to the lack of external correction signals. In this letter, we propose to exploit the environmental perception ability of Wheel-INS to achieve simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) with only one IMU. To be specific, we use the road bank angles (mirrored by the robot roll angles estimated by Wheel-INS) as terrain features to enable the loop closure with a Rao-Blackwellized particle filter. The road bank angle is sampled and stored according to the robot position in the grid maps maintained by the particles. The weights of the particles are updated according to the difference between the currently estimated roll sequence and the terrain map. Field experiments suggest the feasibility of the idea to perform SLAM in Wheel-INS using the robot roll angle estimates. In addition, the positioning accuracy is improved significantly (more than 30\%) over Wheel-INS. Source code of our implementation is publicly available (https://github.com/i2Nav-WHU/Wheel-SLAM).

Developing safe and useful general-purpose AI systems will require us to make progress on scalable oversight: the problem of supervising systems that potentially outperform us on most skills relevant to the task at hand. Empirical work on this problem is not straightforward, since we do not yet have systems that broadly exceed our abilities. This paper discusses one of the major ways we think about this problem, with a focus on how to turn it into one that can be productively studied empirically. We first present an experimental design centered on choosing tasks for which human specialists succeed but unaided humans and current general AI systems fail. We then present a proof-of-concept experiment following meant to demonstrate a key feature of this experimental design and show its viability with two question-answering tasks: MMLU and time-limited QuALITY. On these tasks, we find that human participants who interact with an unreliable large-language-model dialog assistant through chat -- a trivial baseline strategy for scalable oversight -- substantially outperform both the model alone and their own unaided performance. These results are an encouraging sign that scalable oversight will be tractable to study with present models and bolster recent findings that large language models can productively assist humans with difficult tasks.

软机器人抓手具有许多优势，可以解决动态空中抓握方面的挑战。最近展示的用于空中抓握的典型多指的软握把高度依赖于成功抓握的目标对象的方向。这项研究通过开发一种用于自主空气操纵的全向系统来推动动态空中抓地力的边界。特别是，该论文研究了一种新型，高度集成，模块化，传感器富含通用的握把的设计，制造和实验验证，专为空中应用而设计。提出的抓手利用粒子堵塞和软颗粒材料的最新发展产生了强大的握持力，同时非常轻巧，节能，并且只需要低激活力。我们表明，通过在膜的硅硅混合物中添加添加剂，可以将持有力提高多达50％。实验表明，即使没有几何互锁，我们的轻质抓地力也可以以低至2.5n的激活力发育高达15n的持有力。最后，通过将抓地力安装到多旋风的情况下，在实际条件下执行了一个选择和释放任务。开发的空中抓握系统具有许多有用的属性，例如对碰撞的弹性和鲁棒性以及将无人机与环境脱离的固有的被动合规性。

异常解释是确定将样本与正常数据区分开的一组功能的任务，这对于下游（人）决策很重要。现有方法基于特征子集的空间中的光束搜索。它们在计算上很快变得昂贵，因为他们需要为每个功能子集从头开始运行异常检测算法。为了减轻这个问题，我们提出了一种基于总和网络（SPNS）（一类概率电路）的新型离群解释算法。我们的方法利用了SPN中边际推断的障碍，以计算特征子集中的离群分数。通过使用SPNS，可以向后消除而不是通常的前向光束搜索，这是可行的，该搜索不太容易在说明中缺少相关功能，尤其是当功能数量较大时。我们从经验上表明，我们的方法取得了最先进的结果，以实现异常说明，表现优于最近的基于搜索和深度学习的解释方法

空中操纵器（AM）表现出特别具有挑战性的非线性动力学；无人机和操纵器携带的是一个紧密耦合的动态系统，相互影响。描述这些动力学的数学模型构成了非线性控制和深度强化学习中许多解决方案的核心。传统上，动力学的配方涉及在拉格朗日框架中的欧拉角参数化或牛顿 - 欧拉框架中的四元素参数化。前者的缺点是诞生奇异性，而后者在算法上是复杂的。这项工作提出了一个混合解决方案，结合了两者的好处，即利用拉格朗日框架的四元化方法，将无奇异参数化与拉格朗日方法的算法简单性联系起来。我们通过提供有关运动学建模过程的详细见解以及一般空中操纵器动力学的表述。获得的动力学模型对实时物理引擎进行了实验验证。获得的动力学模型的实际应用显示在计算的扭矩反馈控制器（反馈线性化）的上下文中，我们通过日益复杂的模型分析其实时功能。

我们考虑在无法访问网络培训数据（例如由于隐私或安全问题）的情况下为神经网络产生解释。最近，已经提出了$ \ Mathcal {i} $ - 网络是一种无样品后全球模型可解释性的方法，不需要访问培训数据。他们将解释作为机器学习任务，将网络表示（参数）映射到可解释功能的表示。在本文中，我们将$ \ Mathcal {i} $ - 网络框架扩展到标准和软决策树作为替代模型的情况。我们提出了相应的$ \ Mathcal {i} $ - 净输出层的合适决策树表示和设计。此外，我们通过在生成$ \ Mathcal {i} $ - NET的培训数据时考虑更现实的分布来制作适用于现实世界任务的NETS $ \ MATHCAL {I} $ - NETS。我们对传统的全球，事后解释性方法进行经验评估我们的方法，并表明当无法访问培训数据时，它可以取得优势。

深度神经网络拥有的一个重要股权是在以前看不见的数据上对分发检测（OOD）进行强大的能力。在为现实世界应用程序部署模型时，此属性对于安全目的至关重要。最近的研究表明，概率的生成模型可以在这项任务上表现不佳，这令他们寻求估计培训数据的可能性。为了减轻这个问题，我们提出了对变分性自动化器（VAE）的指数倾斜的高斯先前分配。通过此之前，我们能够使用VAE自然分配的负面日志可能性来实现最先进的结果，同时比某些竞争方法快的数量级。我们还表明，我们的模型生产高质量的图像样本，这些样本比标准高斯VAE更清晰。新的先前分配具有非常简单的实现，它使用kullback leibler发散，该kullback leibler发散，该横向leibler发散，该分解比较潜伏向量的长度与球体的半径之间的差异。